Hard to Form the Words, "President Obama"

Yes, it hurts the lips to form those two words, "President Obama." But get used to it because it seems inevitable even without a few factors that have been hard to predict and I bet are very underestimated. The young voters (18 to 35 years of age) have been an unreliable factor in past elections even when strong efforts have been made to bring them to the voting booths. Most notably the campaign of Al Gore was confident it was going to have a significant edge with the young voters, but that edge failed to materialize and many experts argue that was his ultimate demise. Now, once again, the young voter is in center stage with the Obama campaign cautiously optimistic that this group will give him the landslide some in the national media have been touting.



The other factors to that could have a significant impact are Hispanic voters and disenfranchised moderate Republicans (the bulk that are now considered independents). Hispanic voters will of course affect the outcome of important western swing states such as Nevada, Colorado and even Arizona, Senator McCain's home state. Just prior to 9/11, during the 2000 election, the Republican party began to make significant inroads with the Hispanic electorate, appealing to these Hispanics with conservative social values and support for small business. Unfortunately, 9/11 changed the way middle America viewed immigrants in general and a new wave of tough immigration reformers were born that have alienated Hispanics ever since. This minority group is now flocking to Obama with the hopes for what they believe needs to be a more tolerant immigration policy.



The new independent which I will label as the neo-independent are ex-patriat Republicans or currently disenfranchised or simply confused Republicans that no longer fit with the new direction the neo-cons have taken the party; can become a major factor also in electing Obama with a landslide victory. These neo-indies make up surprisingly large segments of the electorate in the West and even in parts of the South and Midwest. Some statistics show them above 20% of registered voters and as much as 33%. It is important to clarify that these independents are not all former Republicans. Traditionally, independents made up anywhere between 10% to 20% depending on the region of the country we may be looking at. But to be safe it made up an average of about 12% of the electorate. The rise in independents are these neo-indies that primarily come from the Republican Party and social conservative Democrats. These neo-indies are the moderates from both parties that have been alienated by the extremes of both parties. The interesting question to answer is why if these neo-indies are made up of the moderates from both parties are they leaning towards a more extreme candidate, Barack Obama, than one that better fits the description of a moderate, John McCain?



It is pretty clear how lost the Republican Party's identity has become. How could it have alienated these many people and worse yet have driven them whether reluctantly or not into the arms of an extreme liberal. And it will be these factors that will determine whether Obama wins with a landslide or he squeaks a win on November 4th. And it is no one Else's fault than the ruling elite of the Republican Party. No, this really won't be McCain's fault altogether.



John McCain can certainly be blamed for picking a horrible choice in Sarah Palin as VP, he can be blamed for his at times erratic behavior and its not because he is old but because he is John McCain. He tends to be erratic at times. Stunts like suspending his campaign as though he was Mighty Mouse "Here I come to Save the Day." Or his increasingly angry and self demeaning negative campaign. Choosing to attack Obama on his silly ties to William Ayers, than to hammer him on his tax policies and belief in big government (something that has been causing the race to tighten in the last few days). Unfortunately to little to late. But these are things that happen during a Presidential campaign and the loser gets dissected and blamed for things like this.



This time however, his loss is the final nail on the coffin of the Republican Party as we know it today. It doesn't mean forever, just what it means now, the present, November 2008. Let's face it, the Republican Party is going to be blown to smithereens come November 4th if Barack Obama does in fact win (and I will bet my left testicle that he will win, I'm married so I don't use it anymore). Do I mean John McCain or the entire Republican Party? Get out your dark suits gentlemen, and ladies you need to dress in mourning, yes for the big funeral. We can bury McCain later, we are going to the funeral of the Republican Party. The Party that will now only have 40 seats in the Senate, only have 40% of the seats in the House of Representatives, will lose the majority of governorships. Lose the White House to the most liberal Senator in the US Senate. The Party that will shortly lose any conservative influence in the Supreme Court. The party that created the neo-indies that with their staggering numbers are going to help Obama get his landslide. The party that once had the young vote, when they voted in droves for my hero Ronald Wilson Reagan. And yes the party that because of the Hispanic vote got George W. Bush elected in 2000.

NEXT POST

In my next post I will analyze why the Republican Party has died and must now figure out how to resurrect itself and what it will take to do so.